Let's start this season, yo.

Today, finally, the MLS season begins in earnest. I've been in kind of a stupor the past few months. I guess you can tell that by the dearth of blog entries. But I'm genuinely excited that the season is finally here.

Sure, I've been following the CONCACAF Champions' Cup, even if I haven't been blogging about it. That's perhaps the best and most challenging competition the Dynamo face in the year. It's better than the SuperLiga because SuperLiga is comprised of one-match legs in relatively comfortable stadia (often our own) versus teams in their pre-season form. CONCACAF gets us into grueling environments with hostile atmospheres, and against teams that are in mid-season form. I'll also go out on a limb and state -- and do so with unequivocal certainty, even! -- that CONCACAF is better than the US Open Cup, although the Open does have a cool nostalgia factor.

Time will tell whether the new CONCACAF tourney that debuts this season will improve on the current Champions' Cup, which is in its swan song year.

Yeah, I think winning the CONCACAF Champions' Cup would be the best achievement of the Dynamo. It would far exceed the accomplishment of winning the MLS Cup, and would be further enhanced by the fact that this is the final Champions' Cup. So the winner will be the eternal champion, so to speak. That's kinda cool. Kind of like the Longhorns football team winning the final Southwest Conference Championship. They're also Men In (burnt) Orange, btw.

Yet, it always comes back to the regular season, which pits us against our fellows across North America. The season is often described as being without a sense of urgency, but it's the regular season that determines who goes to the tournaments -- the competitions that include CONCACAF, SuperLiga, the US Open Cup (although entry to it is pretty liberal), and the Pan-Pacific Championship should it continue past this year. Even the MLS Cup can be considered a separate tourney that is set up by the results of the regular season.

And when talking about the top teams of a particular season, it begins with the winners of the MLS Cup (that'd be the Dynamo the past two years, y'all) followed by the winners of the Supporters' Shield (that'd be DC United the past two years).

So, while I hope the Dynamo can expand their success into fields other than the post-season MLS Cup tourney, it's the regular season that is the basis for it all; and when it arrives you know that the stage has been set for every team to vie for all of the accolades and the rewards that come with them. In other words: everything hinges on the regular season. It's the hops in the ale. It's the apple in the apple pie. It's the walrus. Word.

My brilliant prognostication
So how do I think the D-Mo will fare this season? Polite of you to ask, seeing as I know you don't really care what I think. Nor should you. People get paid to come up with meaningless pre-season and pre-match analysis. And it turns out that what happens on the field is not affected at all by the words in print. Strange, that. Still, I'll give you my unabashed guesses. No one paid me to make them, but they're as accurate as anything else you'll read. And you can take it to Vegas; I just wouldn't recommend it, yo.

Well, the obvious conclusion of the salaried media literati (as seen repeatedly in the media links below) is that the D-Mo have a dominant defense (including Onstad between the pipes) and a skilled, veteran midfield. Thus, they already have the most important pieces set. The big question mark is the striker corps. Right now we have Ching and some unproven players, including Reserve veteran Wondolowski and the young Argentinean Franco Caraccio. Still, with a strong backline and skilled central machine, the Dynamo are expected to be one of the top-tier teams, along with DC United.

My thoughts are that the media has it right, but are a bit too simplistic in their assessments. I think that our vaunted defense looked pretty shaky in the pre-season, despite upgrading our backs with Boswell to replace Cochrane. It still needs to find its feet and tighten up where it's slack. And I think our goal-scoring options aren't as different as in past years. We've never had a particularly robust goal-scorer, yet we still manage to win. I think our forwards will manage to find the net this year, although it would help if they could get a speedy option to complement Ching's play. And! It turns out forwards aren't the only ones who score in this game. It seems that D-Ro and Holden can put a few away, and our big boys in the back (BBitB) convert their fair share on set plays. It's true.

So what am I saying? Here are my can't-fail prognostications. We don't break the defensive record we set last year. We go through at least one slump this season. We have some high scoring games and some games where we can't score on the weakest of MLS defenses who are a man down. We comfortably make the playoffs. And once we make the playoffs, anything can happen. At that point a team must win only a two-leg series then a single match in order to get to the MLS Cup. The Dynamo have proven they're among the best at this short tournament, and I think their season will be good enough that they'll be in that crapshoot of a tourney. Once they enter the post season, we'll deal with a renewed prediction; but they'll be in the playoffs, no doubt. Hopefully they do so with some other accomplishment under their belt. The Supporters' Shield? A tournament win? Something?

But it all starts tonight, versus the New England Revolution. So what's the dealio about tonight's match. Here it is: it's a rematch of the last two MLS Cup finals -- blah, blah -- Dynamo won both -- blah, blah -- something to prove -- blah and more blah. Fact is, the Revs have a better regular season record versus the D-Mo because they are effective at playing negative soccer. But! Win or lose tonight will mean nothing for either team -- and it likely ends in a draw. Both teams should be among the last standing at season's end.

Here's some media links on tonight's game
The MLS game preview.

Another MLSnet article.

You should always stop by the Chronicle. Here are its Dynamo Notes. While there, check out the new look for the Chron's Dynamo coverage. As always, the Chronicle is the best place to start for D-mo info.

Highfalutin' pre-season assessments of the Men in Orange that surpass mine:
The Chronicle's Dynamo beat writer, B-Fall, always has the best scoop and excellent insight. He's a Saprissa fan, though, so turn a jaundiced eye on his assessment of our performance in the CONCACAF Champions' Cup Semifinal these next two weeks. For the season he picks the Men.In.Orange. to place first in the Western Conference.

MLSnet's "quick hits"

Kyle McCarthy of Goal.com has his take here. "As long as you're not looking for a striker, you can probably find what you need on the Dynamo bench… Houston is built for a deep run into the playoffs with its depth and experience. ... Don’t bet against a three-peat.

One of my favorite blogs, USSoccerplayers.com, has its summary of the bandwagon team of the season. That's us, yo. "It's Houston, a club that's known nothing but glory. They had you at hello."

Shaka Hislop -- wait a minute: Shaka Hislop? -- says "Neither LA nor Dallas, however, are favourites for the 2008 title. That honour goes to Houston Dynamo, who have won the championship for the last two seasons and now have high-profile financial backing in the form of Oscar de la Hoya. Their players tell me they enjoy playing for their decorated manager, Dominic Kinnear, and that is evident in their wholehearted performances. Such chemistry makes Houston the team to beat. Having been formed as recently as 2005, the Dynamo clearly show the kind of fast and fruitful development that the MLS as a whole is seeking." Shaka must know what he's talking about. He adds U's to favor and honor. That means he knows foutball.

Only slightly related media bits:
Goal.com has this observation about games that have an interesting side-story: In the April 19 match between Los Angeles and Houston, "Houston midfielder Ricardo Clark returns from his record nine-game suspension just in time for a trip to Lalaland to face his old nemesis Carlos Ruiz."

Kelly Gray won't appear in any more of Beckham's Soccer In The USA shows. He's with Colorado now. Good luck, Kelly.

Have you been been keeping up with the "10 hottest Dynamo games"? Here's the schedule on Channel 55:
Mon, MAR 24 - Game No. 10 - 8:00 p.m.
Tues, MAR 25 - Game No. 9 - 8:00 p.m.
Wed, MAR 26 - Game No. 8 - 8:00 p.m.
Thu, MAR 27 - Game No. 7 - 8:00 p.m.
Fri, MAR 28 - Game No. 6 - 8:00 p.m.
Mon, MAR 31 - Game No. 5 - 8:00 p.m.
Tue, APR 1 - Game No. 4 - 8:00 p.m.
Wed, APR 2 - Game No. 3 - 8:00 p.m.
Thu, APR 3 - Game No. 2 - 8:00 p.m.
Fri, APR 4 - Game No. 1 - 8:00 p.m.
My DVR channel listing doesn't have these listed, so you just gotta flip to The Tube at 8 PM yourself, I guess.

MLS Cup: 1 Day 2 Go

The official game guide for the MLS Cup is up. Interesting tidbit: "Dynamo have yet to defeat the Revolution when full-time has been reached since the club's arrival in south Texas. In the four league meetings all-time, the teams have played to three draws (including a pair of 1-1 draws in 2006) with one win for the Revolution, and the teams ended last year's final tied after 120 minutes before Houston claimed the Alan I. Rothenberg Trophy on penalty kicks."

Yahoo Sports mentions Dom's off-season plans. "...His mind will not switch off from soccer when the season ends. He has already scheduled a soccer development trip to Spain to visit Real Madrid and spend more time in Britain." Don't know what will come of the trip, but I like the idea that the wheels keep a-turnin'. I'm not sure what I would consider the greatest need for the team next year. I don't think we could improve much (or couldn't afford to improve much) on: GK, at least 2 of our backline, D-Mid, A-Mid, wingers (which includes 3 people now with Holden ascendance), and Ching. Perhaps another high profile striker? Not much else needing improvement or worth spending a lot of money on. Things may be clarified a bit over the off-season as we are bound to lose someone to the San Jose expansion draft, if nowhere else. What matters is that we currently we have the personnel to win the MLS Cup.

As for the Cup, USSoccerPlayers.com has its take on the coaches (Kinnear and Nicol, y'all) and the wingers (Mullan & Davis vs Smith & Thompson).

Tino Palace at MLSnet actually hopes NE will win the Cup. Maybe he just wants the Revs to win it so they'll stop going to the final. Steve Davis, the Dallas-area journalist for MLSnet, says it's too close to call.

First Greg Lalas, and now another SI writer thinks New England is going to win.

Jeff Carlisle of ESPN says it'll be Houston.

So does Goal.com.

Is there a "formula for success" for getting to the Cup? Hey, is that Twellman who's saying nice things about the Dynamo? Stop it. I don't want to like you.

For the record, DeRo's post-goal strut is called a "the shake and bake." I was one guilty of calling it the "funky chicken." "Shake and bake" sounds too much like Talladega Nights...but I guess "funky chicken" doesn't ring of elegance either. Ah, well; what's in a name? I like the funky strut and hope to see it more than once tomorrow. Heck, how about a beaver trick?!

My Take
The teams are too close to make a failsafe prediction, and not being able to foresee the future, I have to rely on the past to predict future results. Thus, Houston 2-1 in regulation. Our defense is just too good, and the only real question mark is how our finishing will be on the day. I will assume it will be better than usual because the squad knows this is it, and their experience from SuperLiga and the CONCACAF Champions Cup will carry them through the big game. Houston gets the goal it needs, forcing New England to open up, and we get another. We can't withstand the relentless pressure and do concede one goal.

I think it'd be more dramatic if we go down 0-1 then come back 2-1. If the lads want to do that, that's fine with me. Just carry the plot out to its happy resolution.

Other MLS news:
Cuauhtémoc Blanco's sweet left-footed volley from Week 20 won Goal of the Year. It was a good goal, but I think Ngwenya's was the better goal, and a better representative of what we want other leagues to think of when they think of our players' offensive prowess. Ngwenya can be consoled that his teammates Robinson and Onstad also got screwed out of deserving awards. I think at least one of the two (E-Rob or Pat-O) should have one, given our record-setting defense this season.

Playing with Fahr

For the first time in this early season, Dynamo have a full week off between matches. Plus, they've had home cooking for the past week. Thus they should be rested, reinvigorated, and, most of all, hungry for a win when they meet the Chicago Fahr (the Texas way to pronounce the name) tomorrow.

It's too early to talk about "must wins" and worry about a poor season, but the fact is that Dynamo Houston have not impressed so far this season. They need to show their mettle -- and soon -- to show that they are a team that can drive their collective selves to a higher level, and show that they don't require an outside agent (like adversity) in order to thrive.

On a less psychological level, Dynamo need to show some sort of creativity and even diversity on the attack. Our strength is our flank play, sure; but is that all we really can throw at people? Ching is perfectly suited for that style of play (as are Davis and Mullan on the distribution side), but can teams just shut him down to hold us toothless? We don't have any other solid threats to redirect crosses, except for our defenders on set plays.

What we need on the attack is DeRo and Clark to show their wizardry in the middle, while Ching's partner up front needs to threaten with penetrating runs. Last year, Dalglish was the only forward to offer that threat; this year his slump in form is no different than the rest of the team's. With a solid threat up the middle, plus Ching's talents on finishing the work of our wingers, we are a dual threat and a solid contender in the MLS West. With one-dimensional play? Well, we'll score 1 goal every 3 games until Toronto and RSL come to town.

(Is DeRo the Dynamo Lance Berkman this year? And last year, for that matter? So goes Lance/DeRo, so goes the Astros/Dynamo? Discuss.)

On the other end of the ball, the defense is as physical as ever, but seems slower than last year. Whether it's Pachuca, or Donovan of LA, or Galindo of US Goats, or Dane Richards and Jozy-A of RBNY, if you've got speed, you're knocking on Onstad's door. (Or Wells' if you're Pachuca.) If we can't handle speedy attackers, then we need to rely on better positioning instead. It's a fixable problem.

I am optimistically thinking the offense responds to the rest, and the defense (particularly Onstad) maintains the integrity of their homefield. I say 2-0 Dynamo.

A Brief Sojourn into Cynicism
I must confess, when I heard that Dynamo Houston had taken on the Virginia Tech cause for this match versus the Fahr, I didn't cheer for the the team's humanity. I groaned.

No, I am not heartless ... or at least not due to a lack of sympathy for the victims and (most especially) their families. Whenever such pain is inflicted on a scale that makes the media flush with excitement, then those of us who are powerless spectators want to do SOMEthing because we are compassionate yet, as I said, powerless.

Enter the merchants who offer their charity as long as you buy their product. "Buy a six pack of beer and we'll give a percentage to MADD." In other words, give me money and I'll be sure that some of that money goes to something you value. Of course, if we wanted to help, more help would go to the needy if we gave directly to the charity and avoided the middle man. But we instead praise the middle man for his benevolent soul and ignore the slick marketing line we've been fed.

Sometimes it seems our need to come to terms with our own feelings of pain and/or impotence forces us into action even when our intrusion is not needed or wanted. Yet, we selfishly force ourselves onto the true victims, as if our need to cure our minor pain overwhelms our desire to help those who are truly in pain. Sometimes we even take on the mantle of victims ourselves.

So, that's my beef. But having said that, I've heard several VT alumni say they appreciate the gesture, which means the gesture certainly has some worth. (Of course the alumni are emotionally hit even harder by the magnitude of these events, yet are just as powerless as the rest of us, so the urge to do SOMEthing probably is more acute with them.)

Note that my disdain for such marketing spins has nothing to do with Team Dynamo: the coaches and players. They're merely playing a game and doing what they can to help and bring attention to a cause. Nor do I condemn the purchasers who feel good in what they do, as long as they don't feel superior because of what they did. My cynicism (and I rightfully admit that it is jaded cynicism) is reserved for the marketing merchants who prey on the emotions of others. Does that describe Corporate Dynamo? Possibly not. But I still don't feel like I'm helping the world because I'm watching a soccer game, just like I don't feel like I've supported public education because I've bought a lottery ticket.

Fantasy Soccer
I've never been into fantasy sports, but I did venture into fantasy soccer last year and enjoyed it immensely. I ended up something like 950th overall, but I did take my league. This year I'm floating around 15th in my 75-team Dynamo league. That puts me nearly 3000th overall. Less than stellar, to be sure.

Last year the game was played differently. Players' cost rose and fell according to demand. A good manager could find an overlooked talent and bring him on cheaply, then sell him for more at a later date and use the profits to bring in even better talent. That made cheap players as valuable as expensive players. This year, the prices are the same each week and the team cap doesn't waver. It seems luck plays a bigger role with this method. (Yeah, luck is why I'm 3000th. No, really!)

I got an extra dose of fantasy pain this week. I knew that KC had two games this week, so I picked up Eddie Johnson and put him as my captain. Just before the transfer deadline, I inexplicably switched to Carlos Ruiz as my captain. That was a bad move, as Eddie J has 2 goals this week to Ruiz's 0. I guess I should be happy that I at least have Eddie J on my team at all, but switching captains cost me several hundred points. I guess I'm pulling for a brace from Ruiz tomorrow vs the Revs. I wouldn't mind if the Revs won though, just to keep FCD's points down. Lessee, Shaka is still in goal, so a 3-2 Revs win isn't unthinkable.

Last week I had:
Dynamo ties RBNY 1-1 (nope, 10-man Red Bull won)
KC over Fire (Nope)
Chivas over RSL (Yep, a no brainer)
FCD ties Colorado (Nope, FCD was outplayed, but won)

That puts me at 3-2-5 (W-D-L) or 3-7. Don't take me to Vegas, friend. I'm just glad that I'm too late this week to enter any more predictions for the weekend.

Catch you on the other end of the game. Go Maroon.

Weekend Prognostication

Lessee, last week I picked:

Dynamo over Chivas (Check)
RSL over the Crew (Nope-draw)
DC over KC (Nope-KC wins)
New England over the Cannucks (Check)
FCD over RBNY (Nope-RBNY wins)
Colorado over Chicago (Nope-draw)

Not a great record thus far. I could call it 2-4, or call the draws a "push" and call it 2-2-2. At any rate, here's my guess for this weekend:
Dynamo ties RBNY 1-1
KC over Fire
Chivas over RSL
FCD ties Colorado

I wouldn't mind if Dynamo throws off my prediction and takes the Bulls.